Chicken, Eggs, or Bacon for the Reno Market?

  Which comes first, the chicken, or the egg? The age old question that’s left millions pondering since the beginning of time. Some firmly believe in the egg, others’ loyalty lay with the chicken.  So how do we relate this to Commercial Real Estate? Here we go… The buzz at the water-cooler lately, is that the Reno & National Markets are turning around. With New home prices at an all time low,  short sales/ REO’s getting snatched up in a New York minute, land available for pennies on the dollar, and smart investors getting the itch to finally make their move, some predict an over-correction in the market, soon! Staying on this Media backed “positive note” regarding the market rebound… Which industry comes first? Housing? Land? Office/Industrial? Retail? You would think that because of Nevada’s lack of State Tax, Homestead Law, unlimited number of outdoor activities, and an infinite list of additional benefits & attributes that attract potential employees to Nevada, business owners from California & surrounding states would wise up and make the move to Reno. Wouldn’t businesses make the move into offices, industrial buildings, retail space,  or purchase land to build new space? That business would in turn create new jobs, which equal new employees. New employees then create a need for housing, which creates, once again,  a need for land! This pattern is what some would assume, but history proves differently. The natural order for the Commercial & Residential markets returning after the infamous “R word “( of which we do not speak of anymore) is past, is this: 1.Housing  2.Land 3.MF  4.Office/Industrial, 5.Retail  This doesn’t mean that office and industrial will not make any deals in the mean time. Right now much of their business is being generated by people downsizing or moving around for a better deal in the marketplace. There are also those lone investors out there snatching up high cap rate buildings since they are currently cash-flowing assets, as opposed to land. But as far as new faces moving into the market place, historically, this has been the natural order of things. Only time will tell. So, back to the chicken or the egg deal: Will Residential drive Commercial this time? or will Commercial feed Residential?  I would love to hear your feedback Reno!]]>